Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions Over The Earth Research Articles

Unlocking Weather Observations at the End of the World: Late-XIX and Early-XX Century Monthly Mean Temperature Climatology for Southern Patagonia

A climate analysis of the monthly mean temperatures of Southern Patagonia during the late-XIXth and early-XXth centuries was carried out as part of the international data rescue Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) program partnership in Argentina, together with other data sources with regional and global records. The data from these diverse sources were combined to carry out a study in the coastal region of Patagonia, including Tierra del Fuego, between 42° S and 55° S for 11 locations. Furthermore, HadSST monthly/seasonal fields during the period 1880–1920 were also used. Both mean monthly and seasonal temperature values and timeseries variability were considered. Their analysis shows consistent behavior within the study region and compared to Southern Hemisphere mean results, which are characterized by a warm late-XIX century and a cooler early-XX century. This is also in agreement with SST variability along the coasts of Patagonia and hemispheric records. A comparison with present-day observations, where available, also yields consistent behavior. Low-frequency variability, i.e., in periods longer than 3 years, during the study period is consistent with present variability. Trend estimates at Trelew and Rio Gallegos for the period 1901–2020 yield significant trends, consistent with hemispheric warming at their latitudes.

Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data

Abstract. Century reanalysis models offer a possibility to investigate extreme events and gain further insights into their impact through numerical experiments. This paper is a comprehensive summary of historical hazardous storm tides in the German Bight (southern North Sea) with the aim of comparing and evaluating the potential of different century reanalysis data to be used for the reconstruction of extreme water levels. The composite analysis of historical water level extremes, underlying atmospheric situations and their uncertainties may further support decision-making on coastal protection and risk assessment. The analysis is done based on the results of the regional hydrodynamic model simulations forced by atmospheric century reanalysis data, e.g. 20th Century Reanalysis Project (20CR) ensembles, ERA5 and UERRA–HARMONIE. The eight selected historical storms lead either to the highest storm tide extremes for at least one of three locations around the German Bight or to extreme storm surge events during low tide. In general, extreme storm tides could be reproduced, and some individual ensemble members are suitable for the reconstruction of respective storm tides. However, the highest observed water level in the German Bight could not be simulated with any considered forcing. The particular weather situations with corresponding storm tracks are analysed to better understand their different impact on the peak storm tides, their variability and their predictability. Storms with more northerly tracks generally show less variability in wind speed and a better agreement with the observed extreme water levels for the German Bight. The impact of two severe historical storms that peaked at low tide is investigated with shifted tides. For Husum in the eastern German Bight this results in a substantial increase in the peak water levels reaching a historical maximum.

Early meteorological records from Corrientes and Bahía Blanca, Argentina: Initial ACRE‐Argentina data rescue and related activities

AbstractThe international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative works to recover global climate history and build an accessible databank, with data from the past 250 years of terrestrial and marine surface. Argentina is part of that effort with ACRE Argentina recovering data from various sources that have been recorded throughout the country since the 19th century. In this paper, weather observations transcribed from the original records into digital form and taken every day during the years 1860–1879 at Bahía Blanca and from 1873–1886 at Corrientes are presented. The digitization was carried out through the project Meteorologum ad Extremum Terrae (MET) launched in the Zooniverse interface, which is currently working with near 900 citizen scientist volunteers per day. The present analysis corresponds to data retrieved from the collection ‘Anales de la Oficina Meteorológica Argentina’ and contains information on atmospheric pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, cloud cover, cloud types, wind direction, wind speed, rainfall and weather remarks. For the present analysis, only temperature and pressure values, measured in °C and mm of Hg, respectively, were considered, after a quality control of the digitization process was applied. Data values were tested and used to rebuild the time series of both places and correlation with SOI index and monthly pressure values for both places was tested using Spearman correlation. Results show that the influence of El Niño episode during 1877–1878 can be found in the pressure values at Corrientes.

Flood impact on the Spanish Mediterranean coast since 1960 based on the prevailing synoptic patterns

In a changing climate and in social context, tools and databases with high spatiotemporal resolution are needed for increasing the knowledge on the relationship between meteorological events and flood impacts; hence, analysis of high-resolution spatiotemporal databases with detailed information on the frequency, intensity, and impact of floods is necessary. However, the methodological nature of flood databases hinders relating specific flood events to the weather events that cause them; hence, methodologies for classifying flood cases according to the synoptic patterns that generate them are also necessary.Knowing which synoptic patterns are likely to generate risk situations allows for a probabilistic approach with high spatial resolution regarding the timing of occurrence, affected area, and expected damage from floods. To achieve these objectives, we use the SMC-Flood Database, a high-resolution spatiotemporal flood database covering the 1960–2015 period for all municipalities along the Spanish Mediterranean coast. To relate floods with the synoptic conditions that generated them, we used a multivariate analysis method on the corrected daily anomalies of the surface pressure fields, 850 hPa temperature, and 500 hPa geopotential height, all of which were obtained from the 20th Century Reanalysis Project V2.Results show that 12 atmospheric synoptic patterns can statistically explain the 3608 flood cases that occurred in the study area between 1960 and 2015. These flood cases were classified into 847 atmospherically induced flood events. These results reduce the uncertainty during decision making because of the classification of potential risk situations. The Mediterranean Basin is a region where floods have serious socioeconomic impacts; hence, this work helps improving prevention measures and providing information for policymakers, mainly regarding land use planning and early warning systems.

Comprehensive evaluation of satellite-based and reanalysis soil moisture products using in situ observations over China

Abstract. Soil moisture (SM) plays a critical role in the water and energy cycles of the Earth system; consequently, a long-term SM product with high quality is urgently needed. In this study, five SM products, including one microwave remote sensing product – the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) – and four reanalysis data sets – European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis – Interim (ERA-Interim), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the 20th Century Reanalysis Project from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the ECMWF Reanalysis 5 (ERA5) – are systematically evaluated using in situ measurements during 1981–2013 in four climate regions at different timescales over the Chinese mainland. The results show that ESA CCI is closest to the observations in terms of both the spatial distributions and magnitude of the monthly SM. All reanalysis products tend to overestimate soil moisture in all regions but have higher correlations than the remote sensing product except in Northwest China. The largest inconsistency is found in southern Northeast China region, with an unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE) value larger than 0.04. However, all products exhibit certain weaknesses in representing the interannual variation in SM. The largest relative bias of 144.4 % is found for the ERA-Interim SM product under extreme and severe wet conditions in northeastern China, and the lowest relative bias is found for the ESA CCI SM product, with the minimum of 0.48 % under extreme and severe wet conditions in northwestern China. Decomposing mean square errors suggests that the bias terms are the dominant contribution for all products, and the correlation term is large for ESA CCI. As a result, the ESA CCI SM product is a good option for long-term hydrometeorological applications on the Chinese mainland. ERA5 is also a promising product, especially in northern and northwestern China in terms of low bias and high correlation coefficient. This long-term intercomparison study provides clues for SM product enhancement and further hydrological applications.

Ensemble cloud-resolving modelling of a historic back-building mesoscale convective system over Liguria: the San Fruttuoso case of 1915

Abstract. Highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems represent one of the most dangerous flash-flood-producing storms in the north-western Mediterranean area. Substantial warming of the Mediterranean Sea in recent decades raises concerns over possible increases in frequency or intensity of these types of events as increased atmospheric temperatures generally support increases in water vapour content. However, analyses of the historical record do not provide a univocal answer, but these are likely affected by a lack of detailed observations for older events. In the present study, 20th Century Reanalysis Project initial and boundary condition data in ensemble mode are used to address the feasibility of performing cloud-resolving simulations with 1 km horizontal grid spacing of a historic extreme event that occurred over Liguria: the San Fruttuoso case of 1915. The proposed approach focuses on the ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model runs that show strong convergence over the Ligurian Sea (17 out of 56 members) as these runs are the ones most likely to best simulate the event. It is found that these WRF runs generally do show wind and precipitation fields that are consistent with the occurrence of highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems, although precipitation peak amounts are underestimated. Systematic small north-westward position errors with regard to the heaviest rain and strongest convergence areas imply that the reanalysis members may not be adequately representing the amount of cool air over the Po Plain outflowing into the Ligurian Sea through the Apennines gap. Regarding the role of historical data sources, this study shows that in addition to reanalysis products, unconventional data, such as historical meteorological bulletins, newspapers, and even photographs, can be very valuable sources of knowledge in the reconstruction of past extreme events.

The Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative ACRE China workshop: Recovery, digitization, and analysis of pre‐mid‐twentieth century climate observational data in East Asia workshop on 23–24 August, Beijing, China

AbstractThis commentary discusses a recent workshop designed to explore the extant historic instrumental record of weather observations for China, East Asia, and the China Seas region; to uncover new sources of observations; and to work on joint initiatives for their recovery and inclusion in open access data sets. The workshop was funded by the UK Newton Fund's Climate Science for Service Partnership China. It was organized by the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth China, the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Beijing Climate Centre, and the China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) and held at CMA offices in Beijing.

Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation influence on weather regimes over Europe and the Mediterranean in spring and summer

We analyze the influence of the Atlantic sea surface temperature multi-decadal variability on the day-by-day sequence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (i.e. the “weather regimes”) over the Euro-Atlantic region. In particular, we examine of occurrence of weather regimes from 1871 to present. This analysis is conducted by applying a clustering technique on the daily mean sea level pressure field provided by the 20th Century Reanalysis project, which was successfully applied in other studies focused on the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). In spring and summer, results show significant changes in the frequencies of certain weather regimes associated with the phase shifts of the AMO. These changes are consistent with the seasonal surface pressure, precipitation, and temperature anomalies associated with the AMO shifts in Europe.

The "dirty weather" diaries of Reverend Richard Davis: insights about early colonial-era meteorology and climate variability for northern New Zealand, 1839–1851

Abstract. Reverend Richard Davis (1790–1863) was a colonial-era missionary stationed in the Far North of New Zealand who was a key figure in the early efforts of the Church Mission Society. He kept meticulous meteorological records for the early settlements of Waimate North and Kaikohe, and his observations are preserved in a two-volume set in the Sir George Grey Special Collections in the Auckland Central Library. The Davis diary volumes are significant because they constitute some of the earliest land-based meteorological measurements that were continually chronicled for New Zealand. The diary measurements cover nine years within the 1839–1851 time span that are broken into two parts: 1839–1844 and 1848–1851. Davis' meteorological recordings include daily 9 a.m. and noon temperatures and midday pressure measurements. Qualitative comments in the diary note prevailing wind flow, wind strength, cloud cover, climate variability impacts, bio-indicators suggestive of drought, and notes on extreme weather events. "Dirty weather" comments scattered throughout the diary describe disturbed conditions with strong winds and driving rainfall. The Davis diary entries coincide with the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and they indicate southerly and westerly circulation influences and cooler winter temperatures were more frequent than today. A comparison of climate field reconstructions derived from the Davis diary data and tree-ring-based winter temperature reconstructions are supported by tropical coral palaeotemperature evidence. Davis' pressure measurements were corroborated using ship log data from vessels associated with iconic Antarctic exploration voyages that were anchored in the Bay of Islands, and suggest the pressure series he recorded are robust and can be used as "station data". The Reverend Davis meteorological data are expected to make a significant contribution to the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions across the Earth (ACRE) project, which feeds the major data requirements for the longest historical reanalysis – the 20th Century Reanalysis Project (20CR). Thus these new data will help extend surface pressure-based reanalysis reconstructions of past weather covering New Zealand within the data-sparse Southern Hemisphere.

Cover Image, Volume 7, Issue 2

The cover image, by Rob Allan et al., is based on the Opinion Towards integrated historical climate research: the example of ACRE (Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth), DOI: 10.1002/wcc.379. image

Toward integrated historical climate research: the example of Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth

Climate change has become a key environmental narrative of the 21st century. However, emphasis on the science of climate change has overshadowed studies focusing on human interpretations of climate history, of adaptation and resilience, and of explorations of the institutions and cultural coping strategies that may have helped people adapt to climate changes in the past. Moreover, although the idea of climate change has been subject to considerable scrutiny by the physical sciences, recent climate scholarship has highlighted the need for a re‐examination of the cultural and spatial dimensions of climate, with contributions from the humanities and social sciences. Establishing a multidisciplinary dialogue and approach to climate research past, present, and future has arguably never been more important. This article outlines developments in historical climatology research and considers examples of integrated multidisciplinary approaches to climate, climatic variability, and climate change research, conducted across the physical sciences, social sciences, humanities, and the arts. We highlight the international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative as one example of such an integrated approach. Initially, ACRE began as a response from climate science to the needs of the agricultural sector in Queensland, Australia for a longer, more spatially, and temporally‐complete database of the weather. ACRE has now evolved to embrace an international group of researchers working together across disciplines to integrate their efforts into a four‐dimensional (4D) dynamical global historical climate‐quality reanalysis (reconstruction). WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:164–174. doi: 10.1002/wcc.379This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change

The International Surface Pressure Databank version 2

The International Surface Pressure Databank (ISPD) is the world's largest collection of global surface and sea‐level pressure observations. It was developed by extracting observations from established international archives, through international cooperation with data recovery facilitated by the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative, and directly by contributing universities, organizations, and countries. The dataset period is currently 1768–2012 and consists of three data components: observations from land stations, marine observing systems, and tropical cyclone best track pressure reports. Version 2 of the ISPD (ISPDv2) was created to be observational input for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project (20CR) and contains the quality control and assimilation feedback metadata from the 20CR. Since then, it has been used for various general climate and weather studies, and an updated version 3 (ISPDv3) has been used in the ERA‐20C reanalysis in connection with the European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations project (ERA‐CLIM). The focus of this paper is on the ISPDv2 and the inclusion of the 20CR feedback metadata. The Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research provides data collection and access for the ISPDv2, and will provide access to future versions.

Holocene summer temperature reconstruction from sedimentary chlorophyll content, with treatment of age uncertainties, Kurupa Lake, Arctic Alaska

Quantitative records of pre-industrial temperature changes are fundamental for understanding long-term natural climate variability. We used visible reflectance spectroscopy to measure chlorophyll content (and its derivatives) in a sediment core from Kurupa Lake, north-central Brooks Range, Alaska, to reconstruct summer temperature and the number of annual non-freezing days over the past 5.7 ka. A calibration-in-time approach was used to convert downcore changes in chlorophyll content to the climate variables, and an ensemble approach was used to integrate age and calibration uncertainties. The strongest correlation ( rmedian = 0.69, pmedian = 0.02, RMSEP = 1.9°C) is for summer (June through September) temperature using the 20th Century Reanalysis Project dataset. The chlorophyll-inferred 3-year-mean summer temperature shows that the warmest century (3.0–2.9 ka BP) was about 3.0°C (90% range of the ensemble members = 2.3–4.0°C) higher and that the coldest century (1.4–1.3 ka BP) was about 5.5°C lower (90% range = −7.6°C to −5.0°C) than during the reference period (AD 1961–1990). Century-to-century temperature changes over the past 5.7 ka at Kurupa Lake have been large (90% range = −2.8°C to 3.1°C shifts in centennial mean), including the shift between the 19th and 20th centuries, which was above the 90th percentile of temperature changes across all representations of the reconstruction. In contrast to most Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions, Kurupa Lake shows no overall millennial-scale cooling trend. We suggest that increased summer duration (by 4.3 days during the last 6 ka) along with no long-term increase in sea-ice cover over the adjacent Chukchi Sea counter-balanced the influence of decreased insolation intensity on the aquatic productivity in Kurupa Lake.

New directions in hydro-climatic histories: observational data recovery, proxy records and the atmospheric circulation reconstructions over the earth (ACRE) initiative in Southeast Asia

The value of historic observational weather data for reconstructing long-term climate patterns and the detailed analysis of extreme weather events has long been recognized (Le Roy Ladurie, 1972; Lamb, 1977). In some regions however, observational data has not been kept regularly over time, or its preservation and archiving has not been considered a priority by governmental agencies. This has been a particular problem in Southeast Asia where there has been no systematic country-by-country method of keeping or preserving such data, the keeping of data only reaches back a few decades, or where instability has threatened the survival of historic records. As a result, past observational data are fragmentary, scattered, or even absent altogether. The further we go back in time, the more obvious the gaps. Observational data can be complimented however by historical documentary or proxy records of extreme events such as floods, droughts and other climatic anomalies. This review article highlights recent initiatives in sourcing, recovering, and preserving historical weather data and the potential for integrating the same with proxy (and other) records. In so doing, it focuses on regional initiatives for data research and recovery – particularly the work of the international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth’s (ACRE) Southeast Asian regional arm (ACRE SEA) – and the latter’s role in bringing together disparate, but interrelated, projects working within this region. The overarching goal of the ACRE SEA initiative is to connect regional efforts and to build capacity within Southeast Asian institutions, agencies and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) to improve and extend historical instrumental, documentary and proxy databases of Southeast Asian hydroclimate, in order to contribute to the generation of high-quality, high-resolution historical hydroclimatic reconstructions (reanalyses) and, to build linkages with humanities researchers working on issues in environmental and climatic history in the region. Thus, this article also highlights the inherent value of multi/cross/inter-disciplinary projects in providing better syntheses and understanding of human and environmental/climatic variability and change.

Atmospheric pressure changes in the Arctic from 1801 to 1920

In this article, the results of an investigation into the atmospheric pressure conditions in the Arctic in the period from 1801 to 1920 are presented. For this period, which can be described as ‘early instrumental’, limited meteorological data exist from a network of regular stations. As a result, in order to get at least a rough idea of pressure conditions in the Arctic in the study period, data from different land and marine expeditions were collected. A total of 94 pressure series of monthly means have been gathered, the duration of which is usually less than 2 years. While the area and time periods covered by the data are variable, it is still possible to describe the general character of the pressure conditions. The results show that the areally averaged Arctic pressure in the early instrumental period (1861–1920) was 0.8 hPa lower than today (1961–1990). Lower values of atmospheric pressure were also observed in all study regions, excluding the Atlantic. The greatest negative differences (−2.1 hPa) have been found for the Canadian Arctic. The greatest changes between the historical and present times were noted in all winter months and in winter as a whole (−1.9 hPa), while in summer and autumn they were very small and their average differences came to − 0.1 and − 0.2 hPa, respectively. Comparison of historical and contemporary annual courses of atmospheric pressure in the whole of the Arctic and in its particular regions reveals general consonance. There is evidence to show that changes in Arctic atmospheric pressure during the whole study period were insignificant. Atmospheric pressure in the first International Polar Year (IPY) period (September 1882 to July 1883) was, on average, 1.4 hPa higher than in modern period (1961–1990). The greatest positive seasonal differences between historical and contemporary pressure values occurred in autumn (2.6 hPa), while the lowest were in winter (only 0.2 hPa). Spatial patterns of average annual and seasonal atmospheric pressure in the Arctic were very similar to present day ones. The pressure differences calculated between historical and modern mean monthly values show that almost all of them lie within one standard deviation from present long-term mean (1961–1990). Thus, this means that the atmospheric pressure in the early instrumental period was not significantly different to that of the present day. Recent, commonly used gridded datasets of the sea level atmospheric pressure (HadSLP2 and the 20th Century Reanalysis Project) reveal quite a large positive bias in the period 1850–1920 in comparison to the real data from the instrumental observations. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Recovery of Global Surface Weather Observations for Historical Reanalyses and International Users

Third International Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions Over the Earth Initiative Workshop: Reanalysis and Applications; Baltimore, Maryland, 3–5 November 2010; The third Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) workshop advanced the goals of the international ACRE initiative (http://www.met‐acre.org/) to undertake and facilitate the recovery of instrumental terrestrial and marine global surface weather observations underpinning global weather reconstructions and reanalyses spanning the past 200–250 years (http://reanalyses.org). The workshop improved integration of the 35–40 ACRE‐linked international scientific projects, institutions, and organizations working toward these ends. The meeting highlighted the broad array and international usage of ACRE‐facilitated data sets and reanalysis: the International Surface Pressure Databank (ISPD; http://dss.ucar.edu/datasets/ds132.0/), the International Comprehensive Ocean‐Atmosphere Data Set (http:/icoads.noaa.gov/ICOADS;), and the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR; http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/20thC_Rean/). The need for more data recovery for all regions of the globe during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries was emphasized. Many regional efforts for such recovery are under way. The Arctic and maritime regions were highlighted as particular areas needing attention. As a result of the meeting, connections with existing projects were made and new efforts were started to address these needs.

Data rescue initiatives: bringing historical climate data into the 21st century

The currently limited availability of long and high-quality surface instrumental climate records continues to hamper our ability to carry out more robust assessments of the climate. Such assessments are needed to better understand, detect, predict and respond to global climate variabil- ity and change. Despite the wealthy heritage of past climate data and recent efforts to improve data availability and accessibility, much more surface data could be digitised. Additionally, some long records are not of the quality needed for more confidently supporting any climate assessment, ser- vice, or application. The present paper discusses the usefulness of undertaking integrated data res- cue (DARE) activities by showing several climate assessments as examples. It describes emerging DARE activities worldwide, with a focus on the World Meteorological Organization Mediterranean Data Rescue (MEDARE) and the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiatives to assess the benefits historical instrumental climate data can bring to studies of climate variability and change that consider the 21st century.

Analysis of southeast Australian zooplankton observations of 1938–42 using synoptic oceanographic conditions

The research vessel Warreen obtained 1742 planktonic samples along the continental shelf and slope of southeast Australia from 1938–42, representing the earliest spatially and temporally resolved zooplankton data from Australian marine waters. In this paper, Warreen observations along the southeast Australian seaboard from 28°S to 38°S are interpreted based on synoptic meteorological and oceanographic conditions and ocean climatologies. Meteorological conditions are based on the NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis Project; oceanographic conditions use Warreen hydrological observations, and the ocean climatology is the CSIRO Atlas of Regional Seas. The Warreen observations were undertaken in waters on average 0.45 °C cooler than the climatological average, and included the longest duration El Niño of the 20th century. In northern New South Wales (NSW), week time-scale events dominate zooplankton response. In August 1940 an unusual winter upwelling event occurred in northern NSW driven by a stronger than average East Australian Current (EAC) and anomalous northerly winds that resulted in high salp and larvacean abundance. In January 1941 a strong upwelling event between 28° and 33°S resulted in a filament of upwelled water being advected south and alongshore, which was low in zooplankton biovolume. In southern NSW a seasonal cycle in physical and planktonic characteristics is observed. In January 1941 the poleward extension of the EAC was strong, advecting more tropical tunicate species southward. Zooplankton abundance and distribution on the continental shelf and slope are more dependent on weekly to monthly timescales on local oceanographic and meteorological conditions than continental-scale interannual trends. The interpretation of historical zooplankton observations of the waters off southeast Australia for the purpose of quantifying anthropogenic impacts will be improved with the use of regional hindcasts of synoptic ocean and atmospheric weather that can explain some of the physically forced natural variability.